ElderLaw Answers Blog

The  Natonal Center for Health Statistics  of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that life expectancy of Americans at birth reached an all-time high of 78 in 2007.   This ranks us 35th in the world, right behind Portugal and Ireland.

Women do better than men with a life expectancy of 80 years as opposed to 75 for men, and whites do better than blacks, whose life expectancy at birth is only 73 years. 

However, according to the report “Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2007“ it’s black men who do the worst.  Their life exectancy of 70 is seven years less than black women, whose life expectancy of 77 is higher than white men’s life expectancy of 75.

Alzheimer’s disease moved up from the seventh to the sixth cause of death between 2006 and 2007.  However, it is dwarfed in numbers by the two leading causes of death, heart disease and cancer.

While this information is interesting, it leaves a lot out.  Is life expectancy increasing because seniors are living longer or because more people are making it to their older years?  What is the life expectancy of people at age 65?  Are these extra years good years, or are they spent ill and demented?  Do the discrepancies between men and women and between whites and blacks apply equally at all ages?  For instance, are men and blacks (and especially black men) more at risk of death when they are young, or do those who survive to middle and old age also die so much younger than women and whites?

I recently had a call from a prospective client in his early 60s who had been diagnosed with prostate cancer.  His doctors estimated his life expectancy at about 10 years.  Fortunately, the man feels healthy now.  But this news has changed his life choices dramatically. 

No longer does he have the the life expectancy of the average 60-year-old American male of 21 years.  As a result, he had decided to retire early and to make the most of his remaining healthy years.

Fortunately, most of us do not have this man’s death sentence.  But unfortunately, at least for estate and financial planning purposes, we don’t know how long we will live nor how long we will be healthy and able to work.  We don’t know if we will live to a ripe old age in perfect health, or suffer many years of disability and dementia.

According to the Society of Actuaries, a man who reaches age 65 has a one in two chance of living beyond age 85 and a one in four chance of living beyond age 92. Women are likely to live even longer. For a couple reaching age 65, there’s a one in two chance that one spouse will reach age 92 and a one in four chance that one will reach age 97.

That is a huge longevity risk.  These numbers indicate that a single person needs to plan to live to at least 90 and a married couple needs to plan for on spouse reaching age 100. 

But not all individuals have the same life expectancy.  They are affected by their own health — as in the case of my prospective client — their lifestyles, and their genetics.  A family history of longevity would argue for financial planning that anticipates needing resources to last to an old age.  A family history of Alzheimer’s disease would guide an individual to purchase long-term care insurance.

While we cannot know our future exactly, we can determine the likelihood of living a certain number of years, as well as the likelihood of being healthy or ill during that time.  Companies make these predictions in the context of personal injury law suits and for insurance companies.  They can do it for planning purposes as well.  Companies that provide these “Longevity Curve Reports” include 21st Services, which will provide a report for as little as $60.

Other on-line services will also provide a life expectancy estimate at no charge.  But these will be based on self-reported information as opposed to an examination of medical records and they will provide on a single number, rather than likelihood of reaching various ages.  For instance, it may say that you can expect to live until age 86, rather than saying that you have a 25 percent chance of dying by age 80, and a 25 percent chance of living beyond age 90.  One of these free calculators can be found at the web site Living to 100.

Whether you purchase a report, use a free service, or make your own estimate based on your health, lifestyle and family history, an idea of how long you will live can help guide your estate and financial planning.